Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?
ChinaCommoditiesYearlyBusiness & CorporateMacro & Economy2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill US carbon dioxide emmissions exceed 4,300 million metric tons in 2028?
ForecastExWill US carbon dioxide emmissions exceed 4,350 million metric tons in 2028?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.8 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Emirates Global Aluminium. 2024 actual 2.69 Mt; modest UAE growth.
- The 2.8 Mt strike for 2028 reflects continued UAE-base growth; the Century-EGA Inola JV first metal targeted late 2028 contributes only a partial year.
- EGA's consolidation footprint of Inola is partial (50/50 JV).
- Resolution sources (priority order):
