Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Apr 19, 26, 8:48 PM UTCApr 19, 31, 8:41 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will my new Zowie mouse survive five years?
Manifold MarketsWill there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?
Manifold MarketsIn the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Will my new Jura C9 automatic coffee maker survive five years without any major defects? I will resolve NO when I have to bring it to a shop for repairs at any point in the next five years.
- If it is still working in five years, on the 19th of April, 2031, I will resolve YES.