Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year??

Manifold Markets prices 2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) at 69.6% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year? resolve?

Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2100.

How is Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves annually to Metaculus' community prediction.

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POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 313%
• October 31-0.1pt0%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$75.9M

24h Vol

$119.2K

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 202923.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt15.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+0.2pt4.7%

KALSHI

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

• Before 203583.1%
• Before 203057.8%
• Before 2029-4.9pt19.5%

POLYMARKET

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

• 4,189.3 or 4,189.4-1.5pt83%
• Below 4,189.3+0.9pt6%
• 4,189.5 or 4,189.6-0.9pt3%

+1 more outcomes

KALSHI

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

• Above 1+5.0pt18.5%
• Above 23.5%
• Above 3-1.0pt2%

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes-3.5pt76.5%
• No23.5%

Total Vol

$450.8K

24h Vol

$2.8K

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