Will Marriages/Civil Unions with 3+ people be legally recognized in five or more states by January 1st 2029?
One-OffUS PoliticsSociety & Culture2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 19, 23, 1:28 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris be president of the United States before the end of January 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a US state cease to recognize same-sex marriages by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?
Manifold MarketsDid Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?
Manifold MarketsWill police in the usa kill more people in 2026 than in 2025?
Manifold MarketsRules
If five states have legally recognized (legislation complete) polyamorous marriages, or specifically marriages or civil unions involving three or more parties by midnight 12/31/2028, this question will resolve as "YES."
- Otherwise will resolve as "NO."
