Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.4%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jan 11, 25, 7:34 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWill any portion of Alberta become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWill any portion of Panama become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a US state cease to recognize same-sex marriages by 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a US state cease to recognize same-sex marriages by 2029? resolve?
- Will a US state cease to recognize same-sex marriages by 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.