Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastFlorida 88.8%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 2:42 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a US state cease to recognize same-sex marriages by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075?
Manifold MarketsKentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- An option in this market will resolve YES if, at 23:59:00 local time on 1 January 2028, same-sex marriages have legal recognition in the stated jurisdiction.
- Each option will otherwise resolve NO.
- Clarifications
- For the purpose of this market, a jurisdiction may recognise same-sex marriages without necessarily performing them.
- If, for example, a jurisdiction only recognises same-sex marriages performed extraterritorially, this is sufficient to resolve YES.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+45.0pt96%
- 220-239-11.8pt4%
- 40-590%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $760.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-6444%
- 65-8925%
- <4019%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.7K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- Yes-35.0pt50%
- No50%
- Total Vol
- $3.7K
- 24h Vol
- $3.1K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes+4.0pt18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
KALSHIHarry Kane Knighted in 2026
- No86%
- Yes+1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $17.6K
- 24h Vol
- $405.4
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Florida at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028? resolve?
- Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria