Will the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075?
One-OffReligionManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.5%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 28, 23, 3:48 PM UTCJan 1, 75, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Will require the Church's position as a whole to have changed, not just some breakaway priests or bishops beginning to perform these marriages.
- This would likely take the form of a release by an "apostolic constitution" released by the Pope, perhaps following an ecumenical council, though any official statement of doctrine made by the Church indicating that priests may perform same-sex marriages will be sufficient (e.g. in the official catechism or similar).
- In the event that the Catholic Church ceases to exist or substantially changes in form or structure, such that I do not believe this market can be resolved consistent with its original spirit, I will resolve it N/A.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075? resolve?
- Will the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2075.
- How is Will the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will require the Church's position as a whole to have changed, not just some breakaway priests or bishops beginning to perform these marriages.
