Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.4%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 29, 23, 8:23 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf the US confirms aliens exist, will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027
Manifold MarketsWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), the pope confirms that Jesus has returned.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- May resolve N/A if there is no pope and, in my judgement, if there were a pope he might confirm that Jesus has returned.
- Market idea from https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-82823/comment/39215917
- [link preview]Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Pope's confirmation must specifically refer to the Second Coming of Christ for the market to resolve YES.
- If the Pope confirms the Second Coming of Christ has occurred, this would resolve YES.
Open markets
ReligionPOLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Total Vol
- $65.6M
- 24h Vol
- $14.8K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No61%
- Yes+14.0pt39%
- Total Vol
- $4.8K
- 24h Vol
- $3.6K
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Pietro Parolin5%
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $137.2K
- 24h Vol
- $75
POLYMARKETVatican III in 2026?
- No-0.1pt91%
- Yes+0.1pt9%
- Total Vol
- $10.3
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- No82.6%
- Yes17.4%
- Total Vol
- $619.1
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- No76.6%
- Yes23.4%
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- —
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
- Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?
- Will Jesus Christ return in 2026?
- Will Pope Leo XIV attend a professional sports game in the USA?
- Will the LDS Church (Mormons) allow for gay marriage in their temple before the end of 2030?
- Pope Leo XIV issues a document addressing birth control teaching by December 31, 2026?
- Will the Catholic Church train a PopeGPT and endorse it as doctrinally sound by end of 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? resolve?
- Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), the pope confirms that Jesus has returned.