Will JD Vance be president of the United States at any point before the end of January 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 28, 25, 4:19 AM UTCFeb 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Temporary Presidencies Excluded:
- If JD Vance serves as president solely due to a temporary or acting capacity (such as a brief succession triggered by another president’s incapacitation), that scenario will not be counted.
- Only cases where JD Vance assumes the presidency in a permanent or constitutionally recognized manner will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
