Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?
Crime & JusticeOne-OffUS PoliticsSociety & CulturePolitics3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.6%
Forecasters
73
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 28, 23, 2:34 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Any law to qualify for YES must be actually enforced, i.e. if you will actually be arrested by any level of governmental body solely for expressing your preferred gender in public.
- Native reservations would count.
- Private action like excommunication from organized religious groups would not count.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030? resolve?
- Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any law to qualify for YES must be actually enforced, i.e. if you will actually be arrested by any level of governmental body solely for expressing your preferred gender in public.