Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 87.9%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 14, 23, 4:54 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Did Israel execute unarmed Gazans on December 19th for no good reason?
Manifold MarketsWill Vietnam execute someone for fraud?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
They have executed 2 people so far: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Israel#Executed_people and only have capital punishment for things like genocide.
- It's quite possible they could capture, try, and execute Sinwar or someone like that for genocide.
- Resolves positive if there is an execution on or before 1 January 2030.
