Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.9%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 17, 24, 10:44 PM UTCNov 18, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Israel annex any part of Lebanon before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketRules
The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of Gaza hitherto outside its domain, before Nov 17 2027.
- Resolves NO on Nov 17 2027 otherwise.
- See also: @/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-gaza-by @/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-the-wes @/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-part-of-palestine
- @/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-gaza-in (this market)
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Israel annex a part of Gaza in the next 3 years (Nov 17 2027)??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Israel annex a part of Gaza in the next 3 years (Nov 17 2027)? resolve?
- Will Israel annex a part of Gaza in the next 3 years (Nov 17 2027)? is scheduled to resolve on November 18, 2027.
- How is Will Israel annex a part of Gaza in the next 3 years (Nov 17 2027)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of Gaza hitherto outside its domain, before Nov 17 2027.