Will Iran officially unveil a new Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor by September 18, 2026?
One-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics5dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 6:40 PM UTCSep 17, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by September 18, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, the Iranian government or an authorized Iranian state body publicly unveils a new specific shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, providing sufficiently concrete routing or operational details for it to constitute more than a statement of intent.
- A qualifying announcement may come from the Iranian government, Supreme National Security Council, an authorized maritime or ports authority, or another official state body.
- Statements merely saying that Iran plans, intends, or expects to announce a new corridor do not qualify.
- Publication of an official map, defined route, coordinates, operational rules, or another clear description of the new corridor qualifies as YES.
- The market resolves NO if no such official announcement has occurred by the deadline.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran officially unveil a new Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor by September 18, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 63% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Will Iran officially unveil a new Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor by September 18, 2026? resolve?
- Will Iran officially unveil a new Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor by September 18, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 17, 2026.
- How is Will Iran officially unveil a new Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor by September 18, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria