Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms10d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.1%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Aug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
For whatever reason (ie, "stop the illegals from voting!"), will ICE be deployed in a meaningful fashion to or around polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?
- "ICE" is being used as shorthand for all forms of immigration enforcement, including: DHS and its derivative organizations (such as CBP), or the National Guard when deployed for the purposes of immigration enforcement.
- Resolution criteria
- The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- This market resolves YES if ICE is deployed in a meaningful fashion to or around polling stations on or immediately before Election Day. "Meaningful" means visible, coordinated presence that could reasonably be characterized as enforcement operations targeting polling locations—not incidental encounters or routine operations unrelated to voting sites.
- Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets, election monitoring organizations, or official statements from election officials, DHS, or ICE confirming deployment.
