Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:15 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 78.1%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 20, 23, 4:13 PM UTCJan 1, 01, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
will i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?
Manifold Markets💊 What diseases, ailments, or treatments will I get in my lifetime?
Manifold Markets⌛What will happen in my lifetime?
Manifold MarketsWill someone live to be 125 years old during my lifetime?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves either when I place such a vote or die
- This market is likely correlated with the OR of the following:
- The Republican party essentially remade such that they aren't horribly discriminatory to at minimum groups I care about
- I become one of those mythical detransitioners AND break up with my partner
- The United States becomes a one-party state AND I still live there
- I become so obscenely wealthy that it corrupts me