Current community forecast
Yes 85.4%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMay 26, 22, 4:15 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ontario Liberal Party leadership election winner?
KalshiWill Labour or Reform have the second leadership election between them, after 12th April 2026?
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PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRules
Background info: I requested to join the Labour party on May 9th, no response yet.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-32.1pt53.6%
- Delcy Rodríguez+31.5pt45.4%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $713.5K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $562K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.6M
- 24h Vol
- $464.3K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I be eligible to vote in the next Labour leadership election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will I be eligible to vote in the next Labour leadership election? resolve?
- Will I be eligible to vote in the next Labour leadership election? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will I be eligible to vote in the next Labour leadership election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Background info: I requested to join the Labour party on May 9th, no response yet.