Current community forecast
No 89.4%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingNov 2, 22, 12:52 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is there currently a black hole inside the Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill someone fall into a black hole by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created before 2100?
Manifold MarketsAction Principle for a Dynamical Black Hole Mimicker Formation
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if humans create a black hole before the close date, otherwise resolves no.
- If it's discovered that human activity in the past has created black holes, such as in LHC collisions, that also counts.