Current community forecast
No 95.9%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Oct 19, 23, 5:43 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is there currently a black hole inside the Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill humans create a black hole by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created before 2100?
Manifold MarketsAction Principle for a Dynamical Black Hole Mimicker Formation
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRules
Must be a bio human who plausibly is alive when their body approaches and falls into a black hole.
- Even if they likely died due to the approach it would YES.
- But if they were dead long before getting close to the black hole, then that would not count.
- An artificial black hole would count if it was strong enough to kill them or at least put them permanently beyond the event horizon