Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.3%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 8:05 PM UTCApr 20, 32, 11:20 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gavin Newsom become president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom ever become the President of the USA?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom ever become the Democratic nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Despite the title saying ‘by 2032’, this market resolves YES if Newsom becomes president before scheduled market close date.
- Resolves NO at scheduled market close date, or if Newsom dies or becomes ineligible.
Open markets
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
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- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gavin Newsom become president by 2032??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gavin Newsom become president by 2032? resolve?
- Will Gavin Newsom become president by 2032? is scheduled to resolve on April 20, 2032.
- How is Will Gavin Newsom become president by 2032? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Despite the title saying ‘by 2032’, this market resolves YES if Newsom becomes president before scheduled market close date.