Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.1%
Forecasters
44
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 25, 23, 4:00 PM UTCNov 1, 70, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gavin Newsom become president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom become president by 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever become the President of the USA?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRules
This will resolve to YES when Gavin Newsom becomes President of the USA.
- This will resolve to NO when it is no longer technically possible
Open markets
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gavin Newsom ever become the President of the USA??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gavin Newsom ever become the President of the USA? resolve?
- Will Gavin Newsom ever become the President of the USA? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2070.
- How is Will Gavin Newsom ever become the President of the USA? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This will resolve to YES when Gavin Newsom becomes President of the USA.