Current community forecast
Yes 52.4%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 29, 25, 8:16 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Manifold MarketsBy 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketTop Chinese AI Company week of September 7th
KalshiWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRules
tweet: https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1938743486557090123
- Gary makes the following predictions:
- The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S. Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).
- Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative architectures may do better).
- Profit margins for LLMs will be slim.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $110.1K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $41.2K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C-0.5pt50%
- 27°C+8.5pt27.4%
- 25°C-7.0pt15.7%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.5K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $13.8K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.5pt71.3%
- Moonshot-3.2pt26.7%
- Z.ai-0.8pt1%
+8 more outcomes
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029? resolve?
- Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: tweet: https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1938743486557090123