In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
AIOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.5%
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Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 22, 8:37 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The third question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark)."
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The AI can perform about as well as a good human cook in most kitchens
- It does not require the kitchen to be reorganized for its use
Open markets
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+3 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3) resolve?
- In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The third question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things