By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 88.9% as of October 26, 2026.

When does By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) resolve?

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

How is By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+11.0pt94%
• December 15,+8.5pt90%
• November 30,+30.5pt90%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.9M

24h Vol

$338.4K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt95.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+14.0pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+1.0pt54.5%
• Google36.4%
• OpenAI6.1%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

KALSHI

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

• Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime+19.0pt99.5%
• America First+64.0pt99.5%
• American Dream+65.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.0pt29.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T+0.6pt22.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.7pt17.5%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+2.8pt57.8%
• Gemini-0.8pt30.5%
• ChatGPT-0.1pt

• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Which company has the best AI model end of October?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Best AI this week
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?