By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
One-OffAI3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88.9%
Forecasters
127
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 22, 8:34 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI."
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) resolve?
- By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things