In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
AIOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77.4%
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Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 22, 8:47 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
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The fifth question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification."
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
- I will accept if there is an AI that can do this for >=75% of the proofs published on the arxiv math categories in 2029.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5) resolve?
- In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The fifth question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things