Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93%
Forecasters
44
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Sep 16, 22, 9:19 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
In the [original post](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things) Gary Marcus bets that <3 will resolve to YES.
- Will he lose his bet?
- This market resolves YES if I believe he lost, i.e. I resolve at least three of the other markets to YES, not if Gary Marcus admits he lost.
- Links to the other markets:
- https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc
- https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-read