KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
China 77.5%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$679.1
Liquidity
$642.3
Low liquidityBid / Ask
77.0% / 79.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 7, 26, 11:38 PM UTCSep 11, 26, 4:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the named outcome wins the China vs the named outcome women's professional FIBA World Cup (W) basketball game originally scheduled for Sep 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result.
- If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If China wins the China vs the named outcome women's professional FIBA World Cup (W) basketball game originally scheduled for Sep 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for China is 81%. Quotes span about 2 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference China 81% · 2 venues · 2 pt venue spread
Open markets
China
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $110.7K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+0.6pt97%
- December 31-0.3pt97%
- September 3094%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No+0.5pt73%
- Yes-0.5pt27%
- Total Vol
- $414K
- 24h Vol
- $15.6K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $12.8K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.1pt96%
- Yes-0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $12.3K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+8.0pt48.6%
- 27°C-0.5pt22.4%
- 25°C-3.5pt14.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- Miaoli County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for China vs Puerto Rico?
- Kalshi prices China at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does China vs Puerto Rico resolve?
- China vs Puerto Rico is scheduled to resolve on September 11, 2026.
- How is China vs Puerto Rico settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome wins the China vs the named outcome women's professional FIBA World Cup (W) basketball game originally scheduled for Sep 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is China vs Puerto Rico listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.