Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 94.6%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleNov 21, 22, 12:19 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jon Ossoff run and win the 2028 Presidential Election?
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Kalshi2026 Texas Senate Race
Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's comment, in response to a query about constitutional eligibility, suggests that the market considers the possibility of changes to constitutional eligibility for Elon Musk.
- This implies that current ineligibility does not automatically preclude a YES resolution if legal frameworks (e.g., via a constitutional amendment) were to change to permit him to run and he subsequently does so.
- Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specifies that the market tracks any serious candidacy effort, regardless of whether a constitutional amendment succeeds.
- YES if Elon Musk either:
- Is officially recognized as a candidate by filing FEC Form 2, OR
- Appears on at least one state’s official presidential ballot by Election Day 2028.
