Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.6%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleDec 27, 25, 5:11 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 5:10 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
Manifold MarketsWill Austin Chen publicly regret hiring Caroline Ellison before 2028?
Manifold MarketsCaroline Ellison still working for Manifund by EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested before 2027?
PolymarketViktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
