Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.6%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 27, 25, 5:11 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 5:10 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
Manifold MarketsCaroline Ellison next job
Manifold MarketsWill Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by which date?
PolymarketKanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028? resolve?
- Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.