Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
CryptoOne-OffCrime & Justice1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 64.5%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleNov 1, 24, 5:47 PM UTCNov 8, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX scandal, and is set to begin her sentence on or around November 7, 2024.
- Before the FTX collapse, she was a semi-frequent poster on Tumblr, under the username worldoptimization (the blog is currently deactivated but still viewable, and could be reactivated in the future).
- This question asks whether she will (publicly) resume posting on Tumblr within a year of her expected release date, under either the existing worldoptimization username or a new one.
- If Tumblr ceases to exist before then, this will resolve to "NO".
- Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for a 'Yes' Outcome:
- Real Activity: A one-off post or a post stating no further posts will be made does not count.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison? resolve?
- Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison? is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2027.
- How is Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX scandal, and is set to begin her sentence on or around November 7, 2024.