Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
CryptoOne-OffCrime & Justice1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.1%
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19
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleNov 1, 24, 5:47 PM UTCNov 8, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX scandal, and is set to begin her sentence on or around November 7, 2024.
- Before the FTX collapse, she was a semi-frequent poster on Tumblr, under the username worldoptimization (the blog is currently deactivated but still viewable, and could be reactivated in the future).
- This question asks whether she will (publicly) resume posting on Tumblr within a year of her expected release date, under either the existing worldoptimization username or a new one.
- If Tumblr ceases to exist before then, this will resolve to "NO".
- Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for a 'Yes' Outcome:
- Real Activity: A one-off post or a post stating no further posts will be made does not count.
