Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 12, 26, 8:13 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
Manifold MarketsCaroline Ellison still working for Manifund by EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?
Manifold MarketsAmelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketTSA avg check-ins from Oct 5 to 11, 2026?
KalshiRules
Austin is of course a founder of Manifold and author of such bangers as “In defense of SBF.”
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2028 (12:00 AM UTC), Austin Chen publicly expresses regret regarding his decision to hire Caroline Ellison at Manifund.
- Definition of "publicly regret": Austin Chen must explicitly state in a public forum that hiring Caroline Ellison was a "mistake," "error in judgment," or that he "regrets" the decision, or use substantially equivalent phrasing conveying that he wishes he had not hired her.
- Eligible Sources: Public posts, replies, or comments by Austin Chen on X/Twitter (e.g., via his handle @akrolsmir), his Substack newsletter The Fox Says, Manifold Markets, or direct quotes attributed to him in reputable news publications (such as Bloomberg or Business Insider).
- If Caroline Ellison is terminated or resigns from Manifund without Austin Chen publicly stating that the original hiring decision was a mistake or source of regret, this market will not resolve YES.