Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?
One-OffMacro & EconomyEconomyInflation7dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 9:20 AM UTCSep 16, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiUS retail sales in August
KalshiUK retail sales in August
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for August 2026 reports that headline U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.5% or more month-over-month.
- Use the advance estimate for total retail and food services sales for August 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes.
- Resolve YES if the seasonally adjusted percent change from July 2026 to August 2026 is +0.5% or higher.
- Resolve NO if that change is +0.4% or lower.
- Do not use retail inventories, Monthly Retail Trade Report later-release figures, inflation-adjusted/real sales, CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-trade-only excluding food services, subsector rows, year-over-year change, or later annual revisions unless Census corrects the initial August 2026 advance retail-sales release before resolution.
- If the August 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report is delayed, wait for the first Census release of the August 2026 advance retail-sales figure unless there is no Census August 2026 advance retail-sales release by September 23, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_advance_sales": "$757.1 billion", "april_2026_mom": 0.5, "april_2026_yoy": 4.9, "july_2026_release_schedule": "July 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-08-14 at 08:30 Eastern.", "june_2026_release_schedule": "June 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-07-16 at 08:30 Eastern.", "march_2026_mom_revised": 1.6, "may_2026_release_schedule": "May 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-06-17 at 08:30 Eastern.", "release": "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April 2026"}, "metric": "Headline U.S. retail and food services sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday/trading-day differences but not price changes, month-over-month from July 2026 to August 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["The existing May, June, and July 2026 advance retail-sales markets are prior-reference-month markets, not August duplicates.", "Retail inventories, business inventories, CPI, PPI, PCE, payrolls, unemployment, and recession markets use different releases or criteria.", "Monthly Retail Trade Report sales/inventories later-release markets are not duplicates of the initial Advance Monthly Retail Trade release."], "release_schedule": "Census retail release schedule lists the August 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for 2026-09-16 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for August 2026", "threshold": "+0.5% month-over-month or higher"}.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month? resolve?
- Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month? is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026.
- How is Will August 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for August 2026 reports that headline U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.5% or more month-over-month.