Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 7:17 AM UTCSep 11, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiWill August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsCore CPI MoM - August 2026
PolymarketWill the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026 reports that core CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the all-items less food and energy Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), BLS series CUSR0000SA0L1E, and the seasonally adjusted percent change from July 2026 to August 2026 in the first BLS August 2026 CPI release.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use headline CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, not-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial August 2026 release before resolution.
- If the August 2026 CPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the August 2026 figure unless there is no BLS August 2026 CPI release by September 18, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"core_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.2, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.5, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_yoy": 4.2, "note": "At creation time, June/July/August 2026 CPI releases were still future releases.
- The latest official CPI release available was May 2026.", "release": "Consumer Price Index, May 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted all-items less food and energy CPI-U percent change from July 2026 to August 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, and July 2026 CPI markets are different reference-month markets.", "Headline CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE inflation, PPI, and real-earnings markets are not duplicates.", "Calendar-year inflation markets are not duplicates of a single-month core CPI-U MoM threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS's CPI release schedule lists the August 2026 reference month for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026", "series": "CUSR0000SA0L1E", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official BLS pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation; BLS pages can return HTTP 403 or time out from raw Python requests on this host.", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? resolve?
- Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? is scheduled to resolve on September 11, 2026.
- How is Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026 reports that core CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.