Will October 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
One-OffInflationMacro & Economy2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 26, 4:01 PM UTCNov 13, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Producer Price Index release for October 2026 reports that the PPI for final demand rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the headline Final Demand row in the BLS Producer Price Indexes news release, seasonally adjusted one-month percent change from September 2026 to October 2026.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use CPI, PCE, import/export prices, year-over-year PPI, core PPI, final demand less foods/energy/trade services, not-seasonally-adjusted change, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial October 2026 release before resolution.
- If the October 2026 PPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the October 2026 figure unless there is no BLS October 2026 PPI release by November 13, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"final_demand_less_food_energy_trade_sa_mom_may_2026": 0.8, "final_demand_sa_mom_april_2026": 1.1, "final_demand_sa_mom_march_2026": 0.7, "final_demand_sa_mom_may_2026": 1.1, "final_demand_yoy_may_2026": 6.5, "note": "June and October 2026 PPI releases were still future releases at this market's creation time.", "release": "Producer Price Indexes - October 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in final demand PPI from October 2026 to October 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, and October 2026 PPI final-demand markets are prior-reference-month markets, not October 2026 duplicates.", "CPI, PCE, AHE, import/export price, and calendar-year inflation markets use different releases or series.", "Core PPI or final-demand-less-food-energy-trade-services questions are not duplicates of headline final demand."], "release_schedule": "BLS PPI schedule lists Producer Price Index for October 2026 on 2026-11-13 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Producer Price Index release for October 2026", "series_family": "PPI final demand, seasonally adjusted", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS PPI release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm - BLS 2026 selected release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - BLS current PPI release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.htm - BLS PPI home: https://www.bls.gov/ppi/
Open markets
Inflation
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+12 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will October 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will October 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? resolve?
- Will October 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? is scheduled to resolve on November 13, 2026.
- How is Will October 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Producer Price Index release for October 2026 reports that the PPI for final demand rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.