Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 26, 2:06 AM UTCDec 15, 26, 1:25 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Producer Price Index release for November 2026 reports that the PPI for final demand rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the headline Final Demand row in the BLS Producer Price Indexes news release, seasonally adjusted one-month percent change from October 2026 to November 2026.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use CPI, PCE, import/export prices, year-over-year PPI, core PPI, final demand less foods/energy/trade services, not-seasonally-adjusted change, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial November 2026 release before resolution.
- If the November 2026 PPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the November 2026 figure unless there is no BLS November 2026 PPI release by December 22, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"final_demand_less_food_energy_trade_sa_mom_may_2026": 0.8, "final_demand_sa_mom_april_2026": 1.1, "final_demand_sa_mom_march_2026": 0.7, "final_demand_sa_mom_may_2026": 1.1, "final_demand_yoy_may_2026": 6.5, "note": "June through November 2026 PPI releases were still future releases at this market's creation time.", "release": "Producer Price Indexes - May 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in final demand PPI from October 2026 to November 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, July, August, and September 2026 PPI final-demand markets are prior-reference-month markets, not November 2026 duplicates.", "CPI, PCE, AHE, import/export price, and calendar-year inflation markets use different releases or series.", "Core PPI or final-demand-less-food-energy-trade-services questions are not duplicates of headline final demand."], "release_schedule": "BLS PPI schedule lists Producer Price Index for November 2026 on 2026-12-15 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Producer Price Index release for November 2026", "series_family": "PPI final demand, seasonally adjusted", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS PPI release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm - BLS 2026 selected release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - BLS current PPI release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.htm - BLS PPI home: https://www.bls.gov/ppi/
