Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?
GeopoliticsCustomAITech1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 83.1%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 23, 12:37 PM UTCDec 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Before the end of 2027, will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets (as appearing in the Manifold Market search for that phrase) be above 50%, at the same time, for at least a week?
- This does not include derivative markets such as "Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?"
- Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Conditional markets (e.g., "if there is a war between AI and humans with at least x billion human deaths, will AI wipe out humanity") do not count towards the resolution criteria.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- *Please note that the "AI summary of creator comment" is the exact opposite of my comment.
- The resolution criteria may soon be edited, but not like that.
