What are the current odds for Will Armenia formally apply for EU membership by December 31, 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 59.8% as of October 27, 2026.

Will Armenia formally apply for EU membership by December 31, 2026?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 59.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 19 minutes ago

Aug 26, 26, 4:04 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves YES if Armenia formally submits an application for membership in the European Union by 11:59 PM Armenia time on December 31, 2026.

Otherwise resolves NO.
Preparations, statements of intent, or requests for a roadmap without a formal application do not count.
Sources: Public Radio of Armenia and Euronews.
The market closes twelve hours before the deadline.
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