Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026?
RegulationOne-OffBusiness & CorporateAIChessCorporate ActionsSports1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77.7%
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6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 18, 26, 9:25 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 6:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Anthropic, PBC confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 to the SEC on June 1, 2026 (Anthropic's own announcement, CNBC).
- A confidential draft is not public and is not visible on EDGAR.
- At some point before a roadshow, the company must "flip" the filing public — the prospectus has to be in investors' hands at least 15 days before the roadshow begins.
- This market asks whether that public flip happens by the end of October 2026.
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, on or before October 31, 2026 (EDGAR filing date, US Eastern time), a Form S-1 registration statement (or an S-1/A amendment that makes the previously confidential draft publicly available) filed by Anthropic, PBC — or by a renamed/reorganized successor entity for the same company — is publicly viewable on the SEC's EDGAR system at https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar and https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=anthropic
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Anthropic, PBC confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 to the SEC on June 1, 2026 (Anthropic's own announcement, CNBC).