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Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

One-OffRegulation Crypto Commodities Exchange Stablecoin Politics5mo

GeminiLimited verified data

Current implied probability

Before 2027?

Before 2027? 39.5%

Market quality

46 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

$273

Liquidity

$0

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

38.0% / 41.0%

Spread

3.0 pt

Moderate spread

Market data

Updated 15 minutes ago

Feb 25, 26, 3:23 AMJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Before 2027?40%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market resolves to Yes if crypto market structure legislation becomes law by the specified deadline.

For purposes of this Contract, 'crypto market structure legislation' means any bill that: (1) Establishes a regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely stablecoins); AND (2) Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (SEC, CFTC, or other) for oversight of digital assets; AND (3) Creates definitions or classifications for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other classifications.
Bills that do the following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: solely regulate stablecoins and/or CBDCs; only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without a regulatory framework; only address crypto taxation; pass only one chamber; as well as appropriations bills; executive orders or agency rules; bills vetoed and not overridden; state legislation.
Resolution source: Library of Congress.
Resolves to Yes if qualifying crypto market structure legislation becomes law before this date; otherwise No.
Sources: congress.gov (primary); Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, The New York Times, Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC (secondary).

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$65,298.80+1.24%

EthereumETH$1,952.03+3.80%

SolanaSOL$76.40+1.93%

XRPXRP$1.11+0.58%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0728+0.35%

BNBBNB$573.57+0.63%

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Rules

This market resolves to Yes if crypto market structure legislation becomes law by the specified deadline.

For purposes of this Contract, 'crypto market structure legislation' means any bill that: (1) Establishes a regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely stablecoins); AND (2) Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (SEC, CFTC, or other) for oversight of digital assets; AND (3) Creates definitions or classifications for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other classifications.
Bills that do the following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: solely regulate stablecoins and/or CBDCs; only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without a regulatory framework; only address crypto taxation; pass only one chamber; as well as appropriations bills; executive orders or agency rules; bills vetoed and not overridden; state legislation.
Resolution source: Library of Congress.
Resolves to Yes if qualifying crypto market structure legislation becomes law before this date; otherwise No.
Sources: congress.gov (primary); Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, The New York Times, Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC (secondary).