Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027?
AIOne-OffRegulation3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 76%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMay 1, 23, 11:20 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Google still feature the I'm Feeling Lucky button in some form at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Henry Shevlin be compensated in some form by polymarket for his situation monitoring bar idea?
Manifold MarketsUS bans social media for children in 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
Will 10 countries ban certain language models or forms of AI in their laws.
- This market excludes image/sound creation, just language based AI like ChatGPT.
- Closes at 2027
- So far Italy has already banned chatgpt https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027? resolve?
- Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will 10 countries ban certain language models or forms of AI in their laws.