Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 14, 26, 1:17 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRecession in 2027?
KalshiRules
Has to be an event or consequence caused by AI that then leads to a recession.
- So a major hack of the big banks that causes a panic that leads to a recession would count.
- Also AI replacing so many jobs that there is mass unemployment that leads to a recession would also count.
- However, a simple bubble burst of AI stock leading to a recession would NOT count, as that is not AI doing an act that causes the recession; has to be a recession that results from AI actions or consequences of AI implementation.
- As recessions can have multiple causes, it just needs to be frequently cited as one of the primary causes based on media and scholarly understanding.
- I will make a judgment call if open to debate.
