Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.9%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 16, 26, 5:37 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItWhen will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
KalshiRules
The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.
- Examples which would NOT resolve YES:
- An AI used for military purposes kills someone who it believes to be a valid target, even if they turn out not to be (for example, friendly fire)
- An autonomous vehicle avoids a potentially fatal collision, causing a different fatal collision, even if it was aware that this would be the result
- An industrial robot accidentally kills someone without being aware that this would happen
- A human kills someone or commits suicide after talking to an AI (for example, "AI psychosis")
Open markets
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-2.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt2%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.2M
- 24h Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt55%
- October 31-3.5pt31.2%
- September 30-2.5pt11.9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt21%
- October 31-4.0pt13%
- September 30-2.3pt3%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.8M
- 24h Vol
- $168.1K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt83.2%
- Yes-1.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $66.6M
- 24h Vol
- $148.8K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 58% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? resolve?
- Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.