Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.9%
Forecasters
44
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleAug 2, 23, 4:39 AM UTCJan 19, 38, 8:14 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsWho is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)
Manifold MarketsWill we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.3pt100%
- 74,000+1.4pt100%
- 68,000100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $76,500 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $637.3K
- 24h Vol
- $630.2K
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.6pt98%
- $25M+1.1pt96%
- $50M+1.5pt88%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETEthereum above ___ on September 9?
- 1,900100%
- 2,000+0.5pt100%
- 2,100+0.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 9?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI? resolve?
- Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI? is scheduled to resolve on January 19, 2038.