Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 74%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 14, 24, 9:08 AM UTCJan 8, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Satoshi Nakamoto has appeared on a published video/audio podcast with Dwarkesh Patel before January 1st 2031.
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.3pt100%
- 74,000+1.4pt100%
- 68,000100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $76,500 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $637.3K
- 24h Vol
- $630.2K
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.6pt98%
- $25M+1.1pt96%
- $50M+1.5pt88%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETEthereum above ___ on September 9?
- 1,900100%
- 2,000+0.5pt100%
- 2,100+0.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 9?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031? resolve?
- Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2031.
- How is Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Satoshi Nakamoto has appeared on a published video/audio podcast with Dwarkesh Patel before January 1st 2031.