Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleMar 19, 24, 8:05 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.
- Directed attacks (such as a nation-state executing an AI-powered cyberattack) are excluded, as the damage in those cases is intended by human operators.
- Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify as a rogue AI, there must be a loss of control over the AI system.
- This excludes directed and intentional attacks where the AI is operating under the control and intent of its deployers.
