Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.3%
Forecasters
108
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 1, 24, 9:50 AM UTCJan 2, 60, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This resolves positive if a future Republican president chooses a replacement for Sonia Sotomayor.
- For example, if Trump wins the coming election, Sotomayor leaves the court in 2026, and Trump chooses her replacement, it will resolve positive.
- It resolves negative if a Democratic president chooses Sotomayor's replacement.
- It will also resolve negative if something radical happens to the structure of the Supreme Court or partisan politics that makes this question incoherent.
- This market only resolves once a nominee has been confirmed.
- If a nominee isn't confirmed, for example because the President and Senate can't agree, it will remain open until the President and Senate do agree on someone, and the party of the President whose nominee was eventually confirmed will be used to resolve this market.