Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 66.3%
Yes 66.3%Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 24, 23, 1:41 AM UTCJan 1, 51, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if any device meant to cause an explosion via a nuclear reaction is detonated at least 100 km above Earth's surface before the end of 2050.
- This does not include times that this has happened before the market was created (both the U.S. and the Soviet Union tested nuclear weapons in space before nuclear test ban treaties prohibited it).
- It doesn't necessarily have to be a nuclear weapon.
- A nuclear explosive used for any purpose will count (e.g., destroying or redirecting asteroids that endanger Earth, nuclear thrusters, space mining).
- A device powered by a nuclear reactor doesn't count, even if that device is used to generate explosions - it has to be a nuclear explosion.
