Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?
One-OffScience3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 51.4%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 11, 24, 10:11 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
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+2 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
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- Above 1-2.0pt18%
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- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 51% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01? resolve?
- Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.