Current community forecast
Yes 93.7%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 23, 26, 3:27 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 3:22 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?
Manifold MarketsWill a new mersenne prime be found in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew Mersenne Prime found before 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- 52 Mersenne primes are known, with the largest known prime number being 2^136279841 − 1, which is a Mersenne prime.
- This market resolves YES if M136279841 is confirmed as the 52nd known Mersenne prime.
- Resolution can be verified at the official GIMPS website: https://www.mersenne.org/primes
- M136279841 was initially identified as probably prime on October 11, 2024 by an NVIDIA A100 GPU in Dublin, Ireland, and confirmed with a Lucas-Lehmer test on October 12 by an NVIDIA H100 in San Antonio, Texas.
- This number has 41,024,320 decimal digits and is over 16 million digits larger than the previous record prime number.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $76,500 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $636.3K
- 24h Vol
- $630.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.2%
- Before March 202717.1%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.3%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Next James Bond actor?
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number? resolve?
- Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Is M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria