Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 26, 3:45 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
New Mersenne Prime found before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIs M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number?
Manifold MarketsWill a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- A new Mersenne prime is discovered in 2026 if the Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search (GIMPS) discovers a new Mersenne prime number and the discovery is officially announced by December 31, 2026.
- The discovery date is when the prime is first verified as prime, not when it is announced.
- Resolution will be confirmed via the official GIMPS website at https://www.mersenne.org/primes/ or official GIMPS press releases.
- The most recent Mersenne prime, 2^136279841-1, was discovered on October 21, 2024, with 41,024,320 digits, eclipsing the previous record by more than 16 million digits.
- This is only the 52nd known Mersenne prime ever discovered.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+1.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-41.6pt48%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $265.8K
- 24h Vol
- $109.9K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.9K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? resolve?
- Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria