PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 200-219
Resolved: Sep 18, 2026, 6:03 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
200-219
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
37%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 19, 2026, 12:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
120-1391%
140-15918%
220-2399%
160-1799%
180-19994%
320-3390%
200-219100%
240-2594%
260-2794%
280-2991%
200-219Won
<20Lost
20-39Lost
40-59Lost
60-79Lost
80-99Lost
100-119Lost
120-139Lost
140-159Lost
160-179Lost
180-199Lost
220-239Lost
240-259Lost
260-279Lost
280-299Lost
300-319Lost
320-339Lost
340-359Lost
360-379Lost
380-399Lost
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 11 12:00 PM ET to September 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
- Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
- Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
- Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
- The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.